Herm Edwards opened up training camp with a PowerPoint presentation that attempted to explain away last years 4-12 season in one short sentence: We didn’t finish games in the second half. Herm pounded this point for days in the early part of camp, claiming the first halves of 2007 a victory and the second halves a disaster. Many members of the media picked this notion up as scripture and passed it along as truth with little questioning or counter analysis (e.g. KC Chiefs.com). But does this notion hold any water, or is it just selective memory?
First let us quickly review the evidence for this notion as presented by Herm and then paraphrased by Bob Gretz:
“In 16 games last year, the Chiefs either led, were tied, or trailed by 10 points or less 14 times (in the first half)… If they had split (those) 14 games with stronger second half efforts, they would have been 8-8.”
Am I the only one who sees a serious flaw in the chosen statistic? I’m sorry, but I do not consider being down 10 points at half time a ‘success’ or a close game by any stretch of the imagination. The only thing a 10-point half-time deficit gives you is a pace to lose by 20. So let me present some actual numbers and analysis that might actually have some meaning.
First let’s look at the defense, the only part of the team Herm seems to pay attention to. Ignoring the fact that you’d expect our defense to wear down and perform more poorly in the second half because our poor offense couldn’t stay on the field, let’s just go ahead and compare first and second half defensive performance. Some quick hits:
- First half points given up: 164. Second half: 168. That’s pretty much the same. So remarkably, the defense was pretty consistent, even after being on the field all game.
- Number of times defense gave up 10+ points: First Half = 10, Second Half = 10. Hmm, also gave up the same number of “big-ish” halves on both sides of the game. So games were equally “blown” in both halves.
Ok, so the defense seemed relatively consistent across both halves. I suppose most of Herm’s blame must fall on the second half offense then. Quick offensive hits:
- Chiefs 1st half average: 7.4 points. Chiefs 2nd half average: 6.8. Ok, a small drop-off, but nothing to write home about. Both stink.
- The NFL average scoring by a team in one half was 11 points last year. The Chiefs only accomplished 11+ points three times in the first half. They scored 11+ in the second half two times. Again, this is not a statistically significant drop off between the halves.
Ok, so maybe it’s just that things happened to average out, but that the Chiefs failed in the second half when it counted. Well, how many 1st halves did the Chiefs win, i.e. how many games were they leading at half time? Just six. Considering we won four games, this number isn’t surprising. Most teams (especially struggling ones) will blow a few half time leads over the course of the season.
Or, let’s expand the definition to be more like Herm’s definition of a successful half. How many games were we at least within three points (or winning) at half time? Eight games. For comparison, how many second halves were we within three points of our opponents 2nd half points? Seven games. Again, the halves are pretty consistent.
So in the end, I cannot find any supporting evidence for Herm’s “second half collapse” theory. This is surprising to me, since when Herm first said it, I thought it sounded correct. But it turns out that it was only due to some very memorable poor second halves that happened later in the season and are fresher in my memory. If we couple that with the fact that Herm has our expectations so low that some of us consider a 10-point deficit at half time a “competitive half”, and we begin to see the problem. Somehow losing a game by 20 points seems worse than losing at halftime by 10… but it’s really not.
You want to know the primary reason for our 4-12 season last year? I think you already know: An offense that averaged 14 points a game. That’s over seven points lower than the league average. No amount of defense can erase the fact that scoring three points in a half is a huge offensive failure. Herm fails to acknowledge this and believes three points are perfectly acceptable as long as you hold the opponent to six points or less. He seems to completely misunderstand the offensive side of football and why it even exists. Sometimes it’s almost as if he believes the offense’s only purpose is to keep the defense off the field. Our only hope is that he lets Chan Gailey have the amount of freedom he needs to turn this unit around and give us the well balanced team we’ve been needing for a long time.
Finally, I’ll leave you with a recent Herm quote that is loaded with telling bits of Herm’s psyche. When asked why he waited until this year to coach to the players instead of the system, he responded:
“I don’t know if so much if we didn’t do that last year or the year before. The year before we got in the playoffs. I think we lose sight of some of the things we have done well around here. We always look at one season and say, ‘well, they were horrible.’ Record-wise, yeah, it wasn’t very good. But I thought the players tried to do what we wanted them to do last year. They were well-coached. Our inability to finish games was our Achilles Heel, that and the turnovers and our inability to run the ball and our inability towards the later part of the season to stop the run.”
Ignoring this strange beast with four different Achilles “Heels” (does he know what that saying means?) and his incessant passing of the blame to the players (the “well coached” players “tried”), it’s good to see that Herm has since learned that there were more problems last year than just “not finishing”. Maybe there is hope for him yet. After all, acknowledging a problem is the first step. If only he could realize that “scoring points” was our biggest problem area of all.
P.S. If you disagree with me, I kindly request that you post facts and ideas. Please stop the mindless name-calling I sometimes see from posters. I put a lot of time into gathering statistics for my commentaries, please show the same respect in crafting your responses.
I for one am also very tired of Herm “passing the buck” to everyone else for losses and never pinning it on the coaching staff! His reasoning is not reasoning at all! But rather, mindless jibberish designed to allow him to keep drawing a paycheck. If Herm guides the Chiefs to 10 or more victories and gets the team to the playoffs he would deserve another year, if not he needs to go. Period! Something tells me it won’t take Parcells three years in Miami.
Roger Twibell had a great question in the telecast from Miami, when after Novak missed a field goal, he said “How is it that Miami can find a free agent kicker from Montana (Dan Carpenter),that is so effective?” I can answer that, it’s called having people (Parcells) that know what they are doing!
Comment by Goldzone44 — August 26, 2008 @ 2:27 am
You have hit the nail right on the head. A successful game for Herm is keeping the score “close”, keeping the time of possession close (defense off the field), and slugging it out at the end. That is what Herm means by “finish”. Never mind what the score is, never mind that the offense can’t outscore the other team, never mind that if you get down by two or three scores you are totally out of the game. A game is a success if the defense is off the field and you kept it “close”. Herm does not understand offense in any way shape or form. Absolutely no adjustments were made in the offensive game last year to end the nine game losing streak. The play calling in the Chicago game this preseason was innovative and refreshing. The first string offense moved the ball. The second game the play calling was not quite as good as in the first game. The Miami game, the play calling and the entire offense fell apart. In a three week period of time the offense has totally self destructed. I believe this is because Herm has been meddling in the play calling. It appears to me that in the first game, Chan had free rein. Since then, everything has gone downhill as Herm’s involvement has increased. Or did the offense just fall apart by itself? I think not.
Comment by g.l. — August 26, 2008 @ 8:37 am
Exactly! The offense looked fresh and then Herm got his grips on it and it fell apart! Chan Gailey will be nothing but a name on a business card after a few more weeks! Herm gave him the Chicago game and all else falls back to Edwards! And meanwhile the offense falls back to earth in two quick games!
Comment by Goldzone44 — August 26, 2008 @ 2:40 pm
Yeah, we sure won’t win many games, if we cant even score against a team who only had one win last year. It looks like Parcells is not going to take three years to rebuild. After the Miami game I took a look at the Chiefs schedule. There are very few pushovers on it. This could be a very long season.
Comment by Curtis — August 26, 2008 @ 8:54 pm
Nice article! As a lifelong Chiefs fan, I can only pray for the day when King carl and Herm are forced to ride off into the sunset!And how is it we can get a kicker one day, and release him the next? I remember Jan Stenerud and Nick Lowery! Anyone know who Jeryl Wilson was? How about Derrick Thomas and Neill Smith? Ask Donnie Edwards about “real” Chiefs football! Where is it? We have had GREAT tradition in KC! I chaalenge the younger Mr. Hunt to make his Dad proud! PLEASE let me live long enough to see the trophy bearing his name returned to its rightful place once again! AND THEN, The big Silver Football next to it baby! NOW C’MON! bring us a team we can love and believe in mr. Hunt! We’re tired of excuses and the same ol “next year” BS! We deserve a WINNING team for our Loyalty and Devotion Sir! Please FIRE Mr. Petersen and Mr. Edwards ASAP so we can have a REAL Chiefs Football Team again! Thanks, Peace!
Comment by Phillip — August 26, 2008 @ 9:06 pm
I think at best we are looking at 3-13 or 4-12 again! And even though it will be brutal, it will at least be the end of the clowns in charge and we can truly start fresh next year! (That is as long as C. Hunt pulls the trigger, and part of me is scared he won’t. After all, he should have done it after last season!).
Comment by Goldzone44 — August 26, 2008 @ 10:27 pm
I agree completley with this article. Being down by 10 points at half is only close when your offese can stay on the field and score. Until we rebuild our O line, we will not be contenders.
Comment by Rick — August 27, 2008 @ 7:35 am
VermeilLikesToCry I totally enjoy your commentaries and hope you continue. I also appreciate the thought and time you must put in them. attaboy. I also hate the name calling that often times acompany anything bad that is said about the chiefs. I for one will “always” be a chiefs fan. I will also never question a persons loyalty by what they say. I also believe that I, after dropping all the money on the chiefs all these years (40+), have a right to talk negative about my team if I feel they are not moving in the right direction. If people call this “bashing” the team, so be it. I believe I have “earned” the right!! I also do not believe that we should settle for a mediocre team. WE WANT A WINNER. PERIOD!!! None of us fans should settle for ANYTHING LESS.
I may also have an answer for the wonderful statistics that you presented in this commentary. The reason in my opinion for the likeness in stats between the first half and the second half of these games boils down to one thing. Its called HALF TIME ADJUSTMENTS!! Herm appearantly has never heard of this concept. We just play the second half just like the first half. What i like to call “hermball”. Right now i am crossing my fingers that we at least go 4-12.
Thanks again for the great effort and great stats that you present.
Dennis
Comment by dennis — August 27, 2008 @ 10:15 pm
g.l.,
Herm indeed has a history of “meddling” with the offense and “hermcuffing” his offensive coordinators. This doomed Solari, who was tapped to “continue” the successful offense and system, while having one arm Hermcuffed. Don’t forget, before the 2006 season Herm was asked (i’m paraphrasing), “Will Solari have freedom in running the offense?”, and Herm responded something like “He will call the plays, but he knows what I expect”. That means the OC lived in fear of not following Herm’s ultra-conservative and predictable style.
It also means he had to strictly follow Herm’s pre-game planning, which, as dennis pointed out, really restricts our ability to make half-time adjustments. Herm’s lack of ability to make proper (or any) in-game adjustments is something I’ve often noticed and harped about. I’m glad I’m not the only one bothered by this.
Anyway, thanks for the support guys/gals.
-VermeilLikesToCry
Comment by VLTC — August 28, 2008 @ 3:04 pm
I agree with a majority of your article. However, it needs to be mentioned that although the numbers on many statistics between halves are similar, it doesn’t allow for time of possession. A majority of our games in which we trailed in the second half allowed the opposing team to run the ball, not even trying to score points.
I do remember going in to many half times thinking we still had a chance.
It was nice to see a lot of plays using misdirection in the first preseason game, which played a significant role in the past success of our offense. That being said, it looked like they stopped using it over the course of the last couple of games. If Brodie is going to get the time he needs to make a play (which for some reason is several seconds longer than Huard)
Hope for .500, plan for .250, pray for a new GM for Christmas.
Comment by Travis — August 28, 2008 @ 6:54 pm
This article was easily one of the best articles I have ever read on this web site. Cheers to you man. I think we are a little more than fed up with the way these 2 run the show, and with any luck, we will awake from the nightmare that is the queen carl and herm the sperm show. We will be fighting tooth and nail this season to win four games and one would think that will be enough to push them so far out of town they will need a plane ticket to get back. I like the rest of us here am a diehard, living by the play of our beloved team. I do not understand how a owner as attached to this franchise as Mr. Hunt is, how he could allow another pathetic seaon go by the way side without making changes in the front office. Keep up the great work, you are an excellent writer.
Comment by Chief Fogg — August 29, 2008 @ 12:07 am
I used to like this site. I think I’m going to move on and forget I even come here. It’s a new year, it’s a blah blah blah blah, I’m so sick of hearing you people moan and groan and cry about this and that, Boo Freak’in Hoo. He’s our favorite teams coach or he’s our favorite teams GM, Blah Blah Blah
You call yourself fans HA!! I dont care if they go 1-15 I’ll still be a fan. I cant stand Herm sometimes, But as long as they are CHIEFS I’LL ROOT FOR THEM! You guy’s just piss me off, ever thought if someone wasnt pressured by all the negativity that your sinking into your TV and games towards the GM & Herm maybe we could have a change in the win colum. I can see why you want to win and so do I. But I’d rather lose with grace than to win with hate and greed for the people thats not even on the field.
Who gives a shit what herm said..I want to see dorsy slam a qb, I want croyle to throw a freaking TD pass, I want lots of stuff. I dont care what they say. All I know is I’m tired of hearing the trash. A TEAM wins as a TEAM! Do you see a MF’n I.
Get on board the Red & Gold or Get in to the Black & Silver!
Comment by BadBones — August 29, 2008 @ 12:36 am
Badbones,
I can understand your frustration, i really do. But I think you might misunderstand some of the “negative speakers” motivations. I believe most of the dissent is just that, dissent with the aim of disseminating what they see as truth for the better good. It’s not about “doom and gloom”, it’s about what’s best for the team that we love. It’s about striving for more.
Unfortunately, we do not get a vote; therefore, mass dissent is one of our only options. I completely agree in the proper amount of support and patience. However, after closely watching 7 years of Herm the head coach, I firmly believe that he cannot bring us what this team needs and that there are better options out there.
I will never stop supporting the Chiefs the team. My disapproval of Herm does not shake my support. My love for the team does not deter me from wanting more for them.
Comment by VLTC — August 29, 2008 @ 10:45 am
I’d like to say sorry to anyone who I might have ticked off with my comment. I live in SouthEast MO and its Rams Country and all I hear is crap about how bad this is or how bad that is with the chiefs. So when I come to a fans site like this one and all I feel that I’m the only true dedicated fan here. And I’m “NOT” saying anyone here is not a fan, so dont take that the wrong way. But if I dont hear something good about the team I love. Then I loose interest of that place.
Put it this way, I own TheBoneYard Productions. I promote local Bands in 4 states, I Emcee, I’m a DJ, I am also the local area music news writer for the Dailey Dunklin Democrat, the county paper. I admin TheBoneyard’s Website that also is connected to our local classic rock radio station Z95 The Bone and we are the official forum for the station and if I was to just throw out a bunch of crap about the people that was bad, how far would they succeed?
How far would I succeed?
I sat though some freakin stupid old ass news reel and then smallville for over an hour and a half waiting for the game to start due to rain. And I was impressed with what we did. Anybody got a picture of the gov cup? Anyone happy it’s back home? See, there is a lot of good stuff we could be talking about. And being it was the Rams TV Network I had to watch while wearing my home team red during the game, I think I have just got frustraited with the negativity.
Comment by BadBones — August 29, 2008 @ 5:50 pm