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Don’t Suck For Luck (Week 3 Game Review)
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Don’t Suck For Luck (Week 3 Game Review)
October 1st, 2011 @ 12:28 am; by Nathan Kent
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Ryan Lilja is not a wide receiver.

This news probably does not shock you. Ryan has been a lineman dating all the way back to his high school days at Shawnee Mission Northwest. If you’ve ever seen Ryan shirtless, you know he can’t even be mistaken for an oversize blocking tight end. I know it. You know it. Ryan knows it. 51 of his teammates know it.

Unfortunately, teammate #52 is quarterback Matt Cassel. I’m sure it was an honest mistake. No quarterback worth his salt would aim a pass at an ineligible man with 1:26 left on the clock and the season’s first win in sight. The official NFL gamebook states that his target was running back Dexter McCluster, but Dexter was five yards away. There were two players and two only that were in the vicinity of that pass: Ryan Lilja, and, of course, Eric Weddle, who wears the wrong colors, so Cassel surely wasn’t aiming at him; ergo, he attempted a pass to his left guard.

Of course, Matt Cassel isn’t worth his salt, so maybe the normal rules don’t apply.

I question whether or not Cassel is even trying to play quarterback at this point. I’m not really sure how to describe what he does. Statistically, the quarterback closest to Cassel this season is Kerry Collins. Each has nailed down a passer rating in the mid 60s, and neither has a 200 yard game. Collins has more attempts than Cassel, but fewer completions. Cassel has more picks, but Collins has more fumbles and has taken more sacks. Now that Luke McCown is riding pine in Jacksonville, it’s fair to say that one of these two should be crowned worst quarterback in the NFL.

Ladies and gentlemen, your winner is Matt Cassel. Kerry Collins is miles above him.

I say that not because I think Collins is an exceptional talent experiencing a rough patch, struggling to adjust to a new system he was thrown into with little to no preparation. I say it simply on the grounds that Collins is doing exactly what Cassel is not: making his reads and targeting his receivers. In three games, Collins took aim at his top three wideouts 65 times, his starting tight end 18 times, his tailbacks and fullbacks 10 times, and a reserve tight end once. Over the same stretch, Cassel went for his top three wideouts 36 times, his starting tight end 12, reserve receivers 5, a reserve tight end once, his tailbacks and fullbacks 27 (since the pass to Lilja was officially credited to McCluster, it’s included here), and himself once.

Quarterbacks who dump off a third of their passes to running backs usually do so because they’re under pressure. In Cassel’s case, that’s not so. In 88 dropbacks, he’s been pressured 17 times. That makes him the second least pressured QB in the league, behind only Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Unsurprisingly, on deep pass attempts (20 yards or more), he’s among the league’s least accurate: 4 for 13, or 30.8%. Sadly, that’s actually an improvement from last year, when he went 14 for 57 (24.6%), ahead of only Chad Henne and Alex Smith. Don’t think of blaming it on Bowe or Breaston either. None of his deep passes have been dropped. Matt’s just missing his mark.

Lost in the noise is that the Kansas City defense, sans its best player and stranded on the field for nearly 35 minutes, played really well. Derrick Johnson established himself as an upper echelon inside linebacker last year. Anybody who feared he did so for the sake of ensuring a lucrative second contract can rest assured he did not. Tamba Hali, Wallace Gilberry, Glenn Dorsey, and Allen Bailey all made plays in the backfield. Six different Chiefs defensed a pass, and Gilberry and Donald Washington both forced fumbles. Javier Arenas’s expanding prowess as a punt returner is noteworthy too. His 37 yard return was the longest of the week and tenth longest of the season.

None of which matters if you don’t have a quarterback. The Chiefs definitely don’t have a quarterback. Stanford signal caller Andrew Luck looks like he’s gonna be a pretty good one–so good, in fact, that small (but growing) sects of fans for a handful of teams are embracing the concept of tanking the season to get him. In September. Before it’s even mathematically possible to be halfway to a losing record.

This is a thing of shame.

I’d like for the Chiefs to draft and develop a quarterback that could affect change on this team for a decade or longer. It’s something the franchise has never really fully committed to, and it’s cost them the opportunity to visit the big game on a more regular basis. Intentionally losing, despite being incredibly difficult without taking extreme measures (like starting Tyler Palko, and even that’s not a lock), will absolutely demoralize the team. Even the thickest skull on the team knows that at 0-3, the season is far from lost. Demoralize that player this year, then ask him to put his body at risk for you again next year, and see how well he responds.

This begs the question: is there ever a circumstance where it’s okay to tank a game to move up in the draft? The answer is yes, but only other following circumstances:

It’s week 17. You’re in contention for last place, but today, your opponent is rolling over. The game is actually close. It’s not against a division foe. Shortly before the two minute warning, if you do not yet have the lead and are not deep in enemy territory, and tanking the game would afford you the chance to pick first, yeah, do it. But make it interesting. Someone on your defensive line needs to throw a pass. Not one of the fast guys though. One of the fat ones. Pull a Lane Kiffin. Attempt a fieldgoal on the wrong side of the midfield logo.

Really though, there are a few things that fans just shouldn’t do in sports. Cheering for injuries is one. Cheering against your own team (booing doesn’t count) is another. If your team opens 0-3, you should be hoping for 13-3. If they start 0-13, you should be hoping for 3-13. Besides, tanking for a guy touted as the next John Elway overlooks the fact that three of Elway’s 1983 1st round classmates led their teams to the Super Bowl as well, and two of them are with Elway in the Hall Of Fame. One of them was taken with the 27th overall pick–second to last in the first round.

So if you’re already on the Suck For Luck bandwagon or you’re thinking about climbing on, ask yourself this: is it worth three months of essentially watching your team cheat to lose just to get the next Elway, when behind that Elway there may very well be another Dan Marino?

To me it’s not. It’s not even close.



This entry was posted on Saturday, October 1st, 2011 at 12:28 am. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS feed. Have something to say about this post? Please leave a comment.




    6 Comments
    1. Nice, but, I don’t think our scouts can find that person behind an Elway type….
      I am tired of watching my Chiefs stink up the place. I am very very close to jumping on the Luck bandwagon. Why? I would like to see the Chiefs have a decent QB. Last one was old broke down Montana (even old and broke down, he was still pretty awesome). Gannon was great, but Marty’s “I play my starters when they come off of injuries” BS cost us that year. Let’s see, Gannon comes off the bench, and wins 5 of 6 to take you to the playoffs, and what happens, let’s put GRRRBAC in! I just want to see my home team competitive again.
      I did see some of that last week against the Chargers. Even though Phillip Rivers tried to give it away with his “I can throw anything, anywhere, anytime” attitude.
      And of course our “deer in the headlights” QB Cassel just dumping the ball first sign of the wind blowing.
      Watching the great QB’s in the past and present, they have a that look in their eyes…I will defeat you…all I see in Cassel is “where can I cash my guaranteed $35mil check”.

      Comment by Glen in Colo — October 1, 2011 @ 9:32 pm


    2. Nathan, usually I enjoy reading your commentary. This one was difficult to finish. Did Matt Cassel steal your girlfriend or something? The interception at the end of the game was an ugly play and probably should have been thrown into the ground, but that wasn’t the reason the Chiefs lost that game. Why didn’t anyone block on that play? How did that defender get to the place the ball was going to be thrown to? How about the missed 20 somehting yard FG? I put more blame on terrible play calling and game planning. The reason he is throwing to backs more often is because that is the game plan, it’s been said in press conferences. When he does throw down field, the results have been pretty good.

      No team would ever roll over intentionally, it’s stupid to even talk about that. These guys all have pride in themselves and their team. That will never happen. I would never boo my team for any reason. That would be like booing your brother or mom.

      I hope Matt proves you wrong and has a great season. I believe your rooting against him so they will replace him.

      Comment by Jeff in VA — October 2, 2011 @ 4:13 pm


    3. I really hope Matt told Haley his playcalling is atrocious, I really do. Screens and draws when you dont have a downfield passing game is just doomed to fail. The kid needs to start calling his own plays out there when he gets a dumb play call like that. I still dont think hes the answer but at least he had the balls to bitch at Todd after yet another broken screen play.

      Comment by Brian — October 2, 2011 @ 7:12 pm


    4. Sorry Jeff, just saw your comment. On the play in question, I doubt it was designed for any of the skill position players to block. That’s not uncommon in that sort of hurry up offense. Essentially you want to give the QB as many possible targets as you can, in hopes that one of them will be open. That type of play requires a QB to make quick reads, and therein lies the problem.

      All of which is inconsequential, because had he actually thrown the ball anywhere near McCluster, the chances of Weddle making the pick decrease significantly.

      You stated “when he does throw down field, the results have been pretty good.” This is absolutely incorrect. Even after this past Sunday’s game, wherein he made a couple of really decent throws, Cassel is woefully inaccurate on the deep ball. He’s also still checking down even when he’s not under pressure. Haley might state in press conferences that this is by design, but that’s really nothing more than a means of defending his QB. Even in the most conservative offenses, running backs wouldn’t be primary targets on +/-35% of passing plays. As bad as I think Muir is, I’m positive he’s not drawing up game plans like that and getting the okay from Haley.

      Comment by nathanKent — October 6, 2011 @ 2:59 am


    5. YES!!! Why not go out and tank the rest of the games this season but not on purpose. Wink Wink!!! No of course not but all im saying is the way Matt Cassel plays and has played since getting that $60 Million overpaycheck boogles my mind. He is a career backup in New England and a 3rd String who never saw the field with USC.Are not those signs to an owner and a GM. Oh thats right our GM that came in that year was from the Patriots!!! My bad!! But I cant blame it all on Cassel only 50 percent and the pther 30 percent goes on Haley whom I recall when amani toomer came in 2009 for trainning camp said he had never seen such a clusterfuck of so called practices in his 12 year career. That was the first sign i needed to know haley is a horrible coach and need s to be fired week 6 this year. Yea we wer 10 6 last year but with a very weak schedule and this years schedule is brutal and now we are being exposed!!! I Love the chiefs but im just being honest. and the last 20 percent goes to the owner Clark who since takin over name me one Power Free agent he has gone after??? Its not like we dont have the money cuz we do oh wait maybe hes saving that money for year in and year out top 5 DraftPicks every year!!!!!!!!

      Comment by Adam — October 6, 2011 @ 8:01 pm


    6. Adam, Matt may have backed his way into the pro-bowl last year, but his stats earned him the back spot. His team made the playoffs too by the way.

      Nathan, we’ll have to agree to disagree with the throwing down field thing. I listen to Chiefs on radio most of the time and don’t get to see them very often. It’s been mentioned by Chiefs HOF QB Len Dawson as well.

      Comment by Jeff in VA — October 9, 2011 @ 2:21 pm


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