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	<title>Comments on: The Numbers Don’t Lie (Week 4 Game Review)</title>
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		<title>By: Jeff in VA</title>
		<link>http://www.chiefswarpath.com/news/2011/10/08/the-numbers-don%e2%80%99t-lie-week-4-game-review/comment-page-1/#comment-10470</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff in VA</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Oct 2011 22:59:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chiefswarpath.com/news/?p=18522#comment-10470</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thought I would add a few stats myself.  As you may know, I am all for signing a future HOF QB that will win multiple superbowls for us.  My point is the stars have to line up for any team to get that QB.  Mainly you have to be in the right position of the draft to get him.

First Round QBs since 1992, * = Superbowl QB
1992 - David Klingler, Tommy Maddox, Dave Brown
1993 - Drew Bledsoe*, Rick Mirer
1994 - Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer*
1995 - Kerry Collins*, Steve McNair*
1996 – none
1997 - Jim Druckenmiller
1998 - Peyton Manning*, Ryan Leaf
1999 - Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb*, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown
2000 - Chad Pennington
2001 - Michael Vick
2002 - David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003 - Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, 
2004 - Eli Manning*, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger*, J. P. Losman
2005 - Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers*, Jason Campbell
2006 – Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2007 – Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
2008 – Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, 
2009 –Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010 – Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011– Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christain Ponder

48 first round QBs since 92 draft.  Only 9 have played in a Superbowl.  Not counting the 4 from 2011 and 2 from 2010, 9 of 42 or 21% have played in a Superbowl.  Of those 9 QBs, 4 lost and 5 have won (12%).  Only 2 have appeared in more than one Superbowl.  You have to be in the right position during the draft order to have a 21% chance to pick a future SB QB.   That’s not very likely to happen.  

Since 2005, Rodgers, Campbell, Flacco, Sanchez, Freeman and Tebow were QBs taken after the Chiefs pick and therefore were available when the Chiefs picked.  Of that list, only Rodgers, in my opinion would have been worth the pick.  

In history, only 14 teams, Chiefs included, with a quarterback that started in multiple Superbowls, Dallas (X3), Pittsburgh(X2) and Green Bay(X2) have had more than one QB go to Superbowl more than once.  Only 10 QBs in history have more than one win.  Less than half the teams have had a QB go to SB more than once.

Superbowl QBs since 1992.
Name (appearance), NFL team, college, age, draft round.
XXVI - 1/26/92
Mark Rypien(1), Washington Redskins - Washington State (30) , 6th rd.
Jim Kelly(2),  Buffalo Bills - Miami (FL) (31) , 1st rd.
XXVII - 1/31/93
Troy Aikman(1), Dallas Cowboys - Oklahoma, UCLA (26), 1st rd
Jim Kelly(3), Buffalo Bills - Miami (FL) (32), 1st rd 
XXVIII - 1/30/94
Troy Aikman(2), Dallas Cowboys - Oklahoma, UCLA (27), 1st rd.
Jim Kelly(4), Buffalo Bills - Miami (FL) (33), 1st rd.
XXIX - 1/29/95
Steve Young(1), San Francisco 49ers - BYU (33), supplemental draft, 1st rd.
Stan Humphries(1), San Diego Chargers - NE Louisiana (29), 6th rd.  
XXX - 1/28/96
Troy Aikman(3), Dallas Cowboys - Oklahoma, UCLA (29), 1st rd.
Neil O&#039;Donnell(1), Pittsburgh Steelers - Maryland (29), 3rd rd.
XXXI - 1/26/97
Brett Favre(1), Green Bay Packers - Southern Mississippi (27), 2nd rd. 
Drew Bledsoe(1), New England Patriots - Washington State (24), 1st rd. 
XXXII - 1/25/98
John Elway(1), Denver Broncos - Stanford (37), 1st rd.
Brett Favre(2), Green Bay Packers - Southern Mississippi (28)2nd rd. 
XXXIII - 1/31/99
John Elway(2), Denver Broncos - Stanford (38)1st rd. 
Chris Chandler, Atlanta Falcons - Washington (33), 3rd rd. 
XXXIV - 1/30/00
Kurt Warner(1), St. Louis Rams - Northern Iowa (28), Undrafted
Steve McNair(1), Tennessee Titans - Alcorn State (26), 1st rd. 
XXXV - 1/28/01
Trent Dilfer(1), Baltimore Ravens - Fresno State (28), 1st rd. 
Kerry Collins(1), New York Giants - Penn State (28), 1st rd. 
XXXVI - 2/3/02
Tom Brady(1), New England Patriots - Michigan (24), 6th rd. 
Kurt Warner(1), St. Louis Rams - Northern Iowa (30), undrafted.
XXXVII - 1/26/03
Brad Johnson(1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Florida State (34), 9th rd.  
Rich Gannon(1), Oakland Raiders - Delaware (37)4th rd.
XXXVIII - 2/1/04
Tom Brady(2), New England Patriots - Michigan (26), 6th rd. 
Jake Delhomme(1), Carolina Panthers - Louisiana-Lafayette (29), Undrafted.
XXXVIX - 2/6/05
Tom Brady (3), New England Patriots - Michigan (27), 6th rd. 
Donovan McNabb(1), Philadelphia - Syracuse (28), 1st rd. 
XL - 2/5/06
Ben Roethlisberger(1), Pittsburgh Steelers - Miami (OH) (23), 1st rd. 
Matt Hasselbeck(1), Seattle - Boston College (30), 6th rd. 
XLI - 2/4/07
Peyton, Manning(1), Indianapolis Colts - Tennessee (30), 1st rd. 
Rex Grossman(1), Chicago Bears - Florida (26), 1st rd. 
XLII - 2/3/08
Eli Manning(1), New York Giants - Ole Miss (27), 1st rd. 
Tom Brady(4), New England Patriots - Michigan (30), 6th rd. 
XLIII - 2/1/09
Ben Roethlisberger(2), Pittsburgh Steelers - (26), 1st rd. 
Kurt Warner(2), Arizona Cardinals - (37), undrafted. 
XLIV - 2/7/10
Drew Brees(1) , New Orleans Saints - (31), 2nd rd. 
Peyton, Manning(2), Indianapolis Colts - (33), 1st rd.  
XLV - 2/?/11
Ben Roethlisberger(3), Pittsburgh Steelers - (28), 1st rd. 
Aaron Rodgers(1), Green Bay Packers - (27), 1st rd. 

29.5 is average age of starting QB last 20 years.  Matt Cassel is 29. Haha!

Since 1992, 26 different starting QBs (several repeats), 13-1st Rounders(3 with 3 SBs, 1 with 2 SBs), 2-2nd rounders (1 with 2 SB), 2-3rdrounders,  1-4throunder,  4-6th rounders (1 with 4 SBs), 1-9throunders,  3 –undrafted or supplemental (1 with 2 SBs).   (Confusing I know.  But it shows one half of the last 40 QBs were 1st rounders, but half were not.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thought I would add a few stats myself.  As you may know, I am all for signing a future HOF QB that will win multiple superbowls for us.  My point is the stars have to line up for any team to get that QB.  Mainly you have to be in the right position of the draft to get him.</p>
<p>First Round QBs since 1992, * = Superbowl QB<br />
1992 &#8211; David Klingler, Tommy Maddox, Dave Brown<br />
1993 &#8211; Drew Bledsoe*, Rick Mirer<br />
1994 &#8211; Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer*<br />
1995 &#8211; Kerry Collins*, Steve McNair*<br />
1996 – none<br />
1997 &#8211; Jim Druckenmiller<br />
1998 &#8211; Peyton Manning*, Ryan Leaf<br />
1999 &#8211; Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb*, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown<br />
2000 &#8211; Chad Pennington<br />
2001 &#8211; Michael Vick<br />
2002 &#8211; David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey<br />
2003 &#8211; Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller,<br />
2004 &#8211; Eli Manning*, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger*, J. P. Losman<br />
2005 &#8211; Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers*, Jason Campbell<br />
2006 – Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler<br />
2007 – Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn<br />
2008 – Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco,<br />
2009 –Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman<br />
2010 – Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow<br />
2011– Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christain Ponder</p>
<p>48 first round QBs since 92 draft.  Only 9 have played in a Superbowl.  Not counting the 4 from 2011 and 2 from 2010, 9 of 42 or 21% have played in a Superbowl.  Of those 9 QBs, 4 lost and 5 have won (12%).  Only 2 have appeared in more than one Superbowl.  You have to be in the right position during the draft order to have a 21% chance to pick a future SB QB.   That’s not very likely to happen.  </p>
<p>Since 2005, Rodgers, Campbell, Flacco, Sanchez, Freeman and Tebow were QBs taken after the Chiefs pick and therefore were available when the Chiefs picked.  Of that list, only Rodgers, in my opinion would have been worth the pick.  </p>
<p>In history, only 14 teams, Chiefs included, with a quarterback that started in multiple Superbowls, Dallas (X3), Pittsburgh(X2) and Green Bay(X2) have had more than one QB go to Superbowl more than once.  Only 10 QBs in history have more than one win.  Less than half the teams have had a QB go to SB more than once.</p>
<p>Superbowl QBs since 1992.<br />
Name (appearance), NFL team, college, age, draft round.<br />
XXVI &#8211; 1/26/92<br />
Mark Rypien(1), Washington Redskins &#8211; Washington State (30) , 6th rd.<br />
Jim Kelly(2),  Buffalo Bills &#8211; Miami (FL) (31) , 1st rd.<br />
XXVII &#8211; 1/31/93<br />
Troy Aikman(1), Dallas Cowboys &#8211; Oklahoma, UCLA (26), 1st rd<br />
Jim Kelly(3), Buffalo Bills &#8211; Miami (FL) (32), 1st rd<br />
XXVIII &#8211; 1/30/94<br />
Troy Aikman(2), Dallas Cowboys &#8211; Oklahoma, UCLA (27), 1st rd.<br />
Jim Kelly(4), Buffalo Bills &#8211; Miami (FL) (33), 1st rd.<br />
XXIX &#8211; 1/29/95<br />
Steve Young(1), San Francisco 49ers &#8211; BYU (33), supplemental draft, 1st rd.<br />
Stan Humphries(1), San Diego Chargers &#8211; NE Louisiana (29), 6th rd.<br />
XXX &#8211; 1/28/96<br />
Troy Aikman(3), Dallas Cowboys &#8211; Oklahoma, UCLA (29), 1st rd.<br />
Neil O&#8217;Donnell(1), Pittsburgh Steelers &#8211; Maryland (29), 3rd rd.<br />
XXXI &#8211; 1/26/97<br />
Brett Favre(1), Green Bay Packers &#8211; Southern Mississippi (27), 2nd rd.<br />
Drew Bledsoe(1), New England Patriots &#8211; Washington State (24), 1st rd.<br />
XXXII &#8211; 1/25/98<br />
John Elway(1), Denver Broncos &#8211; Stanford (37), 1st rd.<br />
Brett Favre(2), Green Bay Packers &#8211; Southern Mississippi (28)2nd rd.<br />
XXXIII &#8211; 1/31/99<br />
John Elway(2), Denver Broncos &#8211; Stanford (38)1st rd.<br />
Chris Chandler, Atlanta Falcons &#8211; Washington (33), 3rd rd.<br />
XXXIV &#8211; 1/30/00<br />
Kurt Warner(1), St. Louis Rams &#8211; Northern Iowa (28), Undrafted<br />
Steve McNair(1), Tennessee Titans &#8211; Alcorn State (26), 1st rd.<br />
XXXV &#8211; 1/28/01<br />
Trent Dilfer(1), Baltimore Ravens &#8211; Fresno State (28), 1st rd.<br />
Kerry Collins(1), New York Giants &#8211; Penn State (28), 1st rd.<br />
XXXVI &#8211; 2/3/02<br />
Tom Brady(1), New England Patriots &#8211; Michigan (24), 6th rd.<br />
Kurt Warner(1), St. Louis Rams &#8211; Northern Iowa (30), undrafted.<br />
XXXVII &#8211; 1/26/03<br />
Brad Johnson(1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers &#8211; Florida State (34), 9th rd.<br />
Rich Gannon(1), Oakland Raiders &#8211; Delaware (37)4th rd.<br />
XXXVIII &#8211; 2/1/04<br />
Tom Brady(2), New England Patriots &#8211; Michigan (26), 6th rd.<br />
Jake Delhomme(1), Carolina Panthers &#8211; Louisiana-Lafayette (29), Undrafted.<br />
XXXVIX &#8211; 2/6/05<br />
Tom Brady (3), New England Patriots &#8211; Michigan (27), 6th rd.<br />
Donovan McNabb(1), Philadelphia &#8211; Syracuse (28), 1st rd.<br />
XL &#8211; 2/5/06<br />
Ben Roethlisberger(1), Pittsburgh Steelers &#8211; Miami (OH) (23), 1st rd.<br />
Matt Hasselbeck(1), Seattle &#8211; Boston College (30), 6th rd.<br />
XLI &#8211; 2/4/07<br />
Peyton, Manning(1), Indianapolis Colts &#8211; Tennessee (30), 1st rd.<br />
Rex Grossman(1), Chicago Bears &#8211; Florida (26), 1st rd.<br />
XLII &#8211; 2/3/08<br />
Eli Manning(1), New York Giants &#8211; Ole Miss (27), 1st rd.<br />
Tom Brady(4), New England Patriots &#8211; Michigan (30), 6th rd.<br />
XLIII &#8211; 2/1/09<br />
Ben Roethlisberger(2), Pittsburgh Steelers &#8211; (26), 1st rd.<br />
Kurt Warner(2), Arizona Cardinals &#8211; (37), undrafted.<br />
XLIV &#8211; 2/7/10<br />
Drew Brees(1) , New Orleans Saints &#8211; (31), 2nd rd.<br />
Peyton, Manning(2), Indianapolis Colts &#8211; (33), 1st rd.<br />
XLV &#8211; 2/?/11<br />
Ben Roethlisberger(3), Pittsburgh Steelers &#8211; (28), 1st rd.<br />
Aaron Rodgers(1), Green Bay Packers &#8211; (27), 1st rd. </p>
<p>29.5 is average age of starting QB last 20 years.  Matt Cassel is 29. Haha!</p>
<p>Since 1992, 26 different starting QBs (several repeats), 13-1st Rounders(3 with 3 SBs, 1 with 2 SBs), 2-2nd rounders (1 with 2 SB), 2-3rdrounders,  1-4throunder,  4-6th rounders (1 with 4 SBs), 1-9throunders,  3 –undrafted or supplemental (1 with 2 SBs).   (Confusing I know.  But it shows one half of the last 40 QBs were 1st rounders, but half were not.</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff in VA</title>
		<link>http://www.chiefswarpath.com/news/2011/10/08/the-numbers-don%e2%80%99t-lie-week-4-game-review/comment-page-1/#comment-10465</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff in VA</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Oct 2011 21:21:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chiefswarpath.com/news/?p=18522#comment-10465</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nathan says, &quot;Matt Cassel just did what he’s done about once every four to six weeks in his career as an NFL starter: he played a quality game wherein he made important and sometimes challenging throws, and he posted a decent, laudable passer rating as a result.&quot;  

Jeff says, &quot;hmmmmm, that&#039;s two weeks in a row now?   Actually, that&#039;s 3 weeks in a row over 100 QBR (with one bad pass in the end of the San Diego game, the same week that Brady threw 4 interceptions).&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nathan says, &#8220;Matt Cassel just did what he’s done about once every four to six weeks in his career as an NFL starter: he played a quality game wherein he made important and sometimes challenging throws, and he posted a decent, laudable passer rating as a result.&#8221;  </p>
<p>Jeff says, &#8220;hmmmmm, that&#8217;s two weeks in a row now?   Actually, that&#8217;s 3 weeks in a row over 100 QBR (with one bad pass in the end of the San Diego game, the same week that Brady threw 4 interceptions).&#8221;</p>
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